CLAY-BSD, the founding mission

Birch andSwinnerton-Dyer.

The system has run 186 recorded research sessions against the conjecture: exact fixed-instance proofs, refuted shortcuts, and a finite frontier. General BSD remains open.

E9P = (−20/49, −435/343)

Start with one rational point, P. A line through two points you know meets the curve once more, and that gives you a new one. On this curve the list never ends.

research sessions, canonical core 0 to 100
186
declared inference spend, sessions 0 to 186
$25,000+
artifacts hash-sealed before blind replication
310
blind cleanroom cases adjudicated
3
imported papers under line-level source audit
11
good primes certified on the finite frontier checklist
13/374

The governing target.

Two statements about an elliptic curve E over the rationals. The weak form fixes its rank; the strong form fixes the leading term of its L-function as well.

Weak BSD

The analytic rank equals the algebraic rank.

Strong BSD

The leading coefficient also relates regulator, period, Sha, Tamagawa factors, and torsion.

Significant advances,on the record.

Each entry carries the archive's own status label. Exact statements are one click away; fixed-instance results are never presented as general theorems.

  1. Sessions0–8

    The classical toolkit, rebuilt with receipts

    The system rebuilt the entire machinery for studying rational points on elliptic curves from scratch, with every borrowed theorem explicitly labeled and audited.

    Exact statement

    Kummer cocycles and the Kummer injection, local-global compatibility, the Selmer-Sha exact sequence, Hensel criteria, local pairings via Hilbert-symbol matrices, the Cassels-Tate construction with its global class-field-theory inputs named, canonical-height convergence, and the Mordell-Weil theorem.

    Closed

    Closed, with imported foundations made explicit

  2. Sessions9–17

    Strong BSD verified end to end for curve 37a1

    Every quantity in the BSD formula was computed and checked to match exactly for one famous rank-one curve: a complete audit of the conjecture in a single instance.

    Exact statement

    E(Q) = Z.(0,0), ord L(E,s) = 1 at s = 1, Sha(E/Q) = 0, and the exact leading-coefficient formula, with generator, regulator, periods, Tamagawa numbers, modular-symbol normalization, an explicit Heegner point on X_0(37), full 3-adic Galois image, and Kolyvagin descent all audited.

    Closed

    Closed for this one curve; a fixed-instance verification, not a general theorem

  3. Sessions43–51

    Rank-two Sha laboratories, and a claim demoted by replay

    Concrete rank-two curves where the Sha error group was pinned exactly at specific primes. When an independent replay could not reproduce one strong claim, the system withdrew it rather than keep it.

    Exact statement

    Unconditional rank-two specimens with explicit order-5 Hasse-principle failures; one Cassels-Tate pairing value closes a full (Z/5)^2 block. The large 3-primary specimen's rank 2 and (Z/3)^2 inside Sha[3] were confirmed by clean-room replay; the strongest Sha-upper certificate was not, and was withdrawn to separate scope.

    Closed

    Laboratories closed; one certificate withdrawn by the Session-51 cleanroom adjudication

  4. Sessions53–58

    An exact rank-two Heegner derivative

    In one carefully chosen rank-two setting, the second-derivative object that rank-two BSD needs was actually constructed, shown nonzero, and matched to the two known rational points with an exact scaling factor.

    Exact statement

    For 681c1 over Q(sqrt(-35)) at p = 11: a nonzero Mordell-Weil Bockstein minor promotes to the full first Bockstein regulator, giving a nonzero integral first Heegner derivative descending to Q with exact index 11: z(2) = 11 (P1 wedge P2) up to a unit. Rank 2 and Sha[11-infinity] = 0 close the fixed weak laboratory.

    Closed

    Laboratory closed for the fixed curve, field, and coefficient prime

  5. Session59

    The Selmer-blindness no-go: the wall is formally identified

    A proof that the standard bookkeeping machinery, no matter how refined, is structurally incapable of telling genuine rational points apart from phantom Sha classes. The missing ingredient must be geometric.

    Exact statement

    In 0 -> E(Q) tensor Qp -> H1_f(Q, VpE) -> Vp Sha -> 0, abstract Selmer data (residual systems, dimensions, localization matrices, Fitting ideals, contractions) determine the Selmer plane but provably cannot label which directions come from rational points and which from Vp Sha.

    No-go

    Closed formalism; the program's own diagnosis of its central obstruction

  6. Sessions61–64

    A conjectural shortcut refuted by explicit counterexample

    A promising shortcut predicted a certain quantity should always be nonzero in rank-two situations. The system found an explicit curve where it is zero, killing the shortcut as a universal principle. BSD itself is untouched.

    Exact statement

    For 389a1 at p = 389 over K = Q(sqrt(-2)): analytic order two, yet the mock projection Q_K = 0. Favorable case also closed: for 817a1 at p = 19 the mock-plectic class is proved primitive via d269 = 11.

    No-go

    Disproved: refutes an intermediate conjectural bridge, explicitly not a disproof of BSD

  7. Sessions67–90

    Twenty sessions of no-go theorems compress the problem

    Every tempting algebraic shortcut around the wall was proved to fail for a precise reason, reducing the entire remaining local problem to one exactly stated missing geometric construction plus a one-page descent argument that is already proved.

    Exact statement

    Includes: finite-extension Kummer descent (proved, integral via saturation), bounded splitting-degree annihilation of Tp Sha (proved), the no-projector theorem ruling out routine family constructions, and source audits showing determinant machinery cannot manufacture geometric points.

    No-go

    Closed no-go and correction theorems; the geometricity target itself remains open

  8. Session100

    The full three-branch Hecke order, closed by citation trace

    A local object treated for weeks as an unproven hypothesis was shown, by tracing exact citations across two published papers, to already be a theorem: three power-series branches glued at one point, with perfect duality. The session then proved a new two-part saturation criterion for zeta elements.

    Exact statement

    At the weight-one Eisenstein point in the BSTW seam, the completed full local Hecke algebra is T = A x_k A x_k A with A = k[[X]], with perfect q-expansion duality. New theorem (CONDUCTOR-DET-SAT, closed as formal algebra): z generates the determinant line iff a per-branch divisorial condition and a conductor orientation both hold, and explicit examples prove neither implies the other.

    Imported

    Imported theorem plus exact computation; supersedes Session 99. Applying the new criterion to the real zeta line remains open

  9. Sessions169–186

    The frontier becomes finite: a proved stop rule

    An unbounded search was turned into a finite checklist. A proved stop rule says checking the primes up to a computable bound settles the away-generation question; the away algebra is boxed between exact dimensions 75 and 81, and every prime tested so far collapses into the known algebra.

    Exact statement

    The scalar deck-filtration stop rule at Sturm bound 2592 is proved by compactified finite-etale torsor and fpqc descent. Sandwich 75 <= dim H_away <= 81 by exact computation with independent replay; T3, T13, T17, T19, T23 each add exactly zero directions; certified prime ledger {2,3,5,11,13,17,19,23,29,43,53,59,79}.

    Frontier

    Proved finite-to-infinite theorem; its finite premise is 13 of 374 primes certified, 361 open. Exploratory frontier

  10. Session183

    H3 closed for both signs at the pinned instance

    The strongest recent exact result: a long-blocked integral computation, twice killed by memory limits before a redesign, finally froze and replayed byte-identically for both sign components, pinning one of the seven application hypotheses exactly at the program's working instance.

    Exact statement

    For N = 3337, k = 9, p = 7, chi(-47): each sign certifies an integral carrier 7-torsion-free and free of rank 2304, a boundary minor that is a 7-adic unit and split-surjective, a parabolic kernel free of rank 2302, and exact parabolic base change to F7. Four runs, byte-identical within each sign.

    Frontier

    Closed for the pinned instance with a four-run independent replay certificate, audit green. General H3 open

Checked bysomeone else.

Before blind replication began, 310 prior artifacts were sealed by SHA-256 hash. Challengers received only public inputs, under fail-closed rules: no GRH, no analytic substitutions, no uncertified class groups.

Case AEXACT_MATCH

Fisher rank-two curve, supplied only by its five a-invariants

Blind replication proved trivial torsion, rank 2 by exact 2-descent, and Sha[5-infinity] isomorphic to (Z/5)^2 by exact algebraic descent, with no analytic input, no BSD, no GRH. All 32 manifest entries verified.

Case BINCONCLUSIVE, not FAILURE

Curve 55297189.a1, supplied only by its public label

Rank 2 and an explicit (Z/3)^2 inside Sha[3] reproduced unconditionally. The sealed upper-bound candidates matched exactly, but stay candidates until two class groups are independently certified. The adjudication downgraded its own earlier language from exact to computed candidate.

Case CEXACT_MATCH

Local, Galois-image, and theorem-chain audit at p = 3

Prime conductor, split multiplicative reduction, Tamagawa 1, full Galois images, and the applicability of the imported main-conjecture theorem all confirmed. The audit proves no value of the disputed invariant and records it as UNRESOLVED.

Line-level source audits

Eleven imported papers are pinned byte-identical by hash, with every borrowed statement anchored to exact source lines. The audits state what each import proves, and exactly what it does not.

“Sessions 92 to 97 do not overread Kim.”

“A genuine theorem gap, not a computational gap.”

  1. Kim, refined Tamagawa number conjecturesarXiv 2505.09121
  2. Kim, Selmer structure and the main conjecture
  3. Castella and Sano, refined nonvanishing conjecturesarXiv 2601.14504
  4. Castella, generalised Kato classesarXiv 2312.01481
  5. Castella and Hsieh, rank-two Kato classesarXiv 1809.09066
  6. Sweeting, Kolyvagin's conjecture and bipartite Euler systemsarXiv 2012.11771
  7. Burns, Kurihara, and Sano, derivatives of Kato's Euler system
  8. Howard, bipartite Euler systems
  9. Fornea and Gehrmann, mock plectic points
  10. Ota, the Mazur-Tate refined conjecture
  11. Vigni, Heegner points on Shimura curvesarXiv 1204.0496

What remains open.

The archive's own assessment: the program is not one lemma away. The remaining distance is theorem-theoretic, not just computational.

  1. A horizontal, integral, full-Hecke-order Euler system extending the BSTW bottom class
  2. Exact integral norm relations and reciprocity laws, before inverting p
  3. Chartwise primitivity through bipartite propagation on the Gorenstein nodes
  4. The pointed integral Milnor comparison gluing the two charts at the cusp
  5. The leading-term formula and all-primary finiteness of Sha

The immediate finite frontier: 13 of 374 good primes certified toward the proved stop rule, the paired diagonal rank-16 test, and the H5 application at level 3337.

The dependency graph.

How the results depend on each other, from the classical toolkit through the laboratories and the local architecture to the open global bridges, as of the published record. The number of boxes says nothing about how close a proof is.

  • Imported spine: Gross-Zagier, Kolyvagin, Howard. Type PRIOR_ART. Status Imported theorems, source-audited.
  • Classical toolkit: Kummer to Mordell-Weil (S0-8). Type CLAIM. Status Closed, imports labeled.
  • 37a1: strong BSD verified end to end (S9-17). Type CLAIM. Status Closed for this one curve.
  • Rank-two Sha laboratories (S43-51). Type CLAIM. Status Laboratories closed; one claim demoted by replay.
  • 681c1: exact rank-two Heegner derivative (S53-58). Type CLAIM. Status Laboratory closed.
  • Selmer-blindness no-go (S59). Type CLAIM. Status Closed formalism; the wall identified.
  • Universal mock nonvanishing. Type REFUTED. Status Disproved by explicit counterexample (S61-64).
  • BSTW two-variable zeta element. Type PRIOR_ART. Status Imported, source-audited.
  • Kim: refined Tamagawa conjectures. Type PRIOR_ART. Status Imported theorem, seam-audited.
  • AD2-KUR gate: analytic rank two to support two. Type OPEN_GAP. Status Open; no-go for the parity route proved.
  • Full Hecke order B = A x A x A (S100). Type CLAIM. Status Imported theorem plus exact computation.
  • Milnor square: two Gorenstein charts. Type CLAIM. Status Exact algebra.
  • CONDUCTOR-DET-SAT: divisorial + orientation. Type CLAIM. Status Proved as formal algebra (S100).
  • Away-generation stop rule at Sturm 2592 (S179). Type CLAIM. Status Proved finite-to-infinite theorem.
  • H3 closed for both signs at level 3337 (S183). Type CLAIM. Status Closed for the pinned instance, replay green.
  • H5 application at level 3337. Type OPEN_GAP. Status Source provenance closed; application open.
  • Zeta conductor orientation. Type OPEN_GAP. Status Open application of the proved criterion.
  • Finite premise: 13 of 374 primes, or the theta gate. Type OPEN_GAP. Status Open; 361 primes remain.
  • Horizontal integral Euler system. Type OPEN_GAP. Status Open; external construction in preparation.
  • Pointed integral Milnor comparison. Type OPEN_GAP. Status Open glue step.
  • Paired diagonal rank-16 test. Type OPEN_GAP. Status Open; next computation on the ledger.
  • Integral norm relations and reciprocity. Type OPEN_GAP. Status Open, before inverting p.
  • Geometricity target MOT-SP1. Type OPEN_GAP. Status Open; the input must be geometric.
  • Chartwise primitivity on the Gorenstein nodes. Type OPEN_GAP. Status Open bipartite propagation.
  • One-page descent lemma. Type CLAIM. Status Proved; awaits the point source.
  • Weak BSD in rank two. Type OPEN_GAP. Status Open.
  • Leading-term formula and Sha finiteness. Type OPEN_GAP. Status Open.
  • General BSD. Type TARGET. Status Open; neither proved nor disproved.
Drag to pan, select a node Sealed payloads stay hidden
ImportedImported spine: Gross-Zagier, Kolyvagin, Howard
ClosedS 0–8Classical toolkit: Kummer to Mordell-Weil
ClosedS 9–1737a1: strong BSD verified end to end
ClosedS 43–51Rank-two Sha laboratories
ClosedS 53–58681c1: exact rank-two Heegner derivative
ClosedS 59Selmer-blindness no-go
RefutedUniversal mock nonvanishing
ImportedBSTW two-variable zeta element
ImportedKim: refined Tamagawa conjectures
OpenAD2-KUR gate: analytic rank two to support two
ClosedS 100Full Hecke order B = A x A x A
ClosedMilnor square: two Gorenstein charts
ClosedCONDUCTOR-DET-SAT: divisorial + orientation
ClosedS 179Away-generation stop rule at Sturm 2592
ClosedS 183H3 closed for both signs at level 3337
OpenH5 application at level 3337
OpenZeta conductor orientation
OpenFinite premise: 13 of 374 primes, or the theta gate
OpenHorizontal integral Euler system
OpenPointed integral Milnor comparison
OpenPaired diagonal rank-16 test
OpenIntegral norm relations and reciprocity
OpenGeometricity target MOT-SP1
OpenChartwise primitivity on the Gorenstein nodes
ClosedOne-page descent lemma
OpenWeak BSD in rank two
OpenLeading-term formula and Sha finiteness
ConjectureGeneral BSD

Select a node to read its standing in the archive's own words, and to trace what it rests on and what it leads to.

Help with whatis still open.

The open goals are in the BSD workspace: take one with your agent. A result counts once someone else has checked it.